Senior Manager, Forecasting & Analytics

SENIOR MANAGER, FORECASTING & ANALYTICS New York, San Francisco TL;DR Aura's Revenue Organization is building a world-class analytics function to drive forecast accuracy, smarter marketing investment, and growth across our retail and e-commerce channels. As Senior Manager of Revenue Forecasting & Analytics, you'll turn historical and real-time sell-through, marketing, and channel data into the demand forecasts and analytical insight that help the business put the right products in the right markets - and spend marketing dollars where they actually drive profitable demand. You'll work at the intersection of forecasting, marketing analytics, business intelligence, and cross-functional decision-making to build the revenue analytics function that supports Aura's growth across North America, Europe, and expanding international markets. Our story - Aura was founded by two early Twitter software engineers who wanted to take what they knew about social connections and create a way for families to come together around their best memories. The combination of seamless sharing across a smartphone app and a beautiful digital frame resonated, and Aura is now used by millions of families with more than 1 billion photos shared in 2025 alone. What is known as the best digital picture frame by Wirecutter has always been about something more ambitious: a private, trusted platform for connection with your close loved ones. Aura is now available in thousands of leading retail stores across North America and Europe. Role Description Reporting directly to the CRO, you'll combine statistical forecasting, SQL-based business intelligence, and marketing analytics to improve forecast accuracy, connect marketing spend to demand, and enable data-driven decisions across the revenue org. This is an analyst role at heart: you'll live in the data, build the models and views the team relies on, and translate them into clear recommendations - not run a formal S&OP function. If you're energized by forecasting, marketing analytics, and turning messy data into decisions that move the business, this is a chance to make a meaningful contribution to Aura's continued growth. What You'll Do Forecasting & Accuracy • Build and maintain rolling revenue forecasts at the SKU / channel / geography level across Aura's portfolio, using SQL-based data and statistical methods • Refresh forecasts on a regular cadence and ahead of major launches, promotions, and peak periods, incorporating POS, sell-through, marketing performance, and inventory signals • Track forecast accuracy (MAPE, bias, WAPE) at the SKU / channel / week grain, set internal accuracy targets, and continuously refine methodology • Use statistical forecasting techniques to generate baselines and identify opportunities for model improvement Marketing & Channel Analytics • Analyze channel-level acquisition economics (CPA/CAC, payback) and surface where spend is - and isn't - driving profitable demand • Quantify the demand impact of campaigns, promotions, and launches, and fold those signals into the forecast rather than treating them as noise • Partner with Marketing to pressure-test attribution and channel-mix assumptions against actual sell-through, and support incrementality / holdout testing where it matters • Maintain the link between marketing spend, demand signal, and forecast as a repeatable input, not a one-off analysis Business Insight & Decision Support • Review and validate forecasts in collaboration with Sales, Marketing, and Product, ensuring alignment with product launches, promotional calendars, and market trends • Prepare executive-ready analysis explaining forecasts, variances, channel efficiency, and recommendations, and provide regular updates to the CRO and Revenue Leadership team • Champion automation and process improvements that make the team's reporting and analysis faster and more reliable What You Bring Required • Bachelor's degree in Business, Statistics, Economics, Data Science, Marketing, or a related field • 5–7+ years in revenue/marketing analytics, forecasting, business intelligence, or a comparable analytical role - ideally in consumer goods, consumer electronics, or DTC/e-commerce • Demonstrated ownership of a forecast or analytical model across multiple channels, with a track record of measurable accuracy or business impact • Expert-level proficiency in Excel or Google Sheets (advanced functions, pivot tables, data modeling, large dataset manipulation) • Working proficiency in SQL - comfortable querying source systems and BI tools (Metabase, Looker, Snowflake, BigQuery, or similar) without depending on an analyst • Comfort working with marketing performance and channel-economics data (CPA/CAC, ROAS) as analytical and forecast inputs • Strong analytical judgment with attention to detail and the ability to translate data into clear, actionable business recommendations • Excellent communication skills, with the ability to present complex analyses clearly to both technical and non-technical audiences, including executive leadership • Proactive problem-solver who thrives in a fast-paced, entrepreneurial environment with shifting priorities Preferred • Experience with marketing-mix modeling or attribution analysis, incrementality / holdout testing, or channel-efficiency modeling • Familiarity with marketing data sources (GA4, ad platforms, Klaviyo, or attribution tools) • Knowledge of statistical forecasting methods and time-series analysis • Basic programming, scripting, or vibe-coding skills (Python, R, Claude Code) for data analysis and forecasting • Experience with data visualization and analytics tools (e.g., Tableau, Power BI, Looker) in addition to Metabase • Multi-market / international analytics experience • Consumer electronics or hardware industry experience Because You Matter: We believe in creating a happy and supportive work environment, so you can both excel at your job and actually enjoy coming into work each day. Compensation for this role will be in the $140,000 - $160,000 range. For full-time, US-based employees. Benefits may differ for part-time or international roles. • 📈 Generous stock option program - begins vesting after 1 year • 🏥 Comprehensive health plans - Aura pays 100% of the premium for employees and 50% for families. • 💰 401(k) with match - Aura fully matches the first 4% of your salary contributed • 🌯 Lunch and snacks - In SF & NY Offices • 💪 $150 monthly fitness allowance - gym, coaching, etc • 🏝 Flexible time off - and you’re required to take at least 10 days off each year Aura Home Inc. All rights reserved, Aura is proud to be an equal opportunity workplace. We celebrate diversity and are committed to creating an inclusive environment for all employees. We encourage people of different backgrounds, experiences, abilities, and perspectives to apply. 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